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Sharing high growth across generations : pensions and demographic transition in China

  • Song, Zheng University of Chicago Booth, Chicago, Illinois, United States
  • Storesletten, Kjetil Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Minnesota, United States
  • Wang, Yikai Department of Economics, University of Zurich, Switzerland
  • Zilibotti, Fabrizio Center for Economic and Political Research on Aging (CEPRA), Facoltà di scienze economiche, Università della Svizzera italiana, Svizzera
    01.07.2012

40 p.

China
credit market imperfections
demographic transition
economic growth
fully funded system
inequality
intergenerational redistribution
labor supply
migration
pensions
poverty
rural-urban reallocation
total fertility rate
wage growth
English Intergenerational inequality and old-age poverty are salient isuues in contemporary China. China's aging population threatens the fiscal sustainability of its pension system, a key vehicle for intergenerational redistribution. We analyze the positive and normative effects of alternative pension reforms, using a dynamic general equilibrium model that incorporates population dynamics and productivity growth. Although a reform is necessary, delaying its implementation implies large welfare gains for the (poorer) current generations, imposing only small costs on (richer) future generations. In contrast, a fully funded reform harms current generations, with small gains to future generations. High wage growth is key for these results.
Language
  • English
Classification
Economics
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green
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  • RERO DOC 30339
  • ARK ark:/12658/srd1318466
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