The key role of sufficiency for low demand-based carbon neutrality and energy security across Europe

Wiese, Frauke; Taillard, Nicolas; Balembois, Emile; Best, Benjamin; Bourgeois, Stephane; Campos, José; Cordroch, Luisa; Djelali, Mathilde; Gabert, Alexandre; Jacob, Adrien; Johnson, Elliott; Meyer, Sébastien; Munkácsy, Béla; Pagliano, Lorenzo; Quoilin, Sylvain; Roscetti, Andrea; Thema, Johannes; Thiran, Paolo; Toledano, Adrien; Vogel, Bendix; Zell-Ziegler, Carina; Marignac, Yves

doi:10.1038/s41467-024-53393-0

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Journal article

The key role of sufficiency for low demand-based carbon neutrality and energy security across Europe

Wiese, Frauke Department of Sustainable Energy Transition, Europa-Universität Flensburg, Germany
Taillard, Nicolas négaWatt Association, Valence, France
Balembois, Emile négaWatt Association, Valence, France
Best, Benjamin City of Bonn, Climate Neutral Bonn 2035 Program Office, Germany
Bourgeois, Stephane négaWatt Association, Valence, France
Campos, José Department of Environmental and Landscape Geography, ELTE University, Budapest, Hungary
Cordroch, Luisa Department of Sustainable Energy Transition, Europa-Universität Flensburg, Germany
Djelali, Mathilde négaWatt Association, Valence, France
Gabert, Alexandre négaWatt Association, Valence, France
Jacob, Adrien négaWatt Association, Valence, France
Johnson, Elliott Sustainability Research Institute, University of Leeds, UK
Meyer, Sébastien negaWatt Belgium, Ottignies-Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium - Institute of Mechanics, Materials and Civil engineering, Université Catholique de Louvain, Belgium
Munkácsy, Béla Department of Environmental and Landscape Geography, ELTE University, Budapest, Hungary
Pagliano, Lorenzo Architecture and Urban Studies Department, Politecnico di Milano, Italy
Quoilin, Sylvain Integrated and Sustainable Energy Systems, University of Liege, Belgium
Roscetti, Andrea ORCID Istituto per l’architettura sostenibile e la tecnologia (IAST), Accademia di architettura, Università della Svizzera italiana, Svizzera - Architecture and Urban Studies Department, Politecnico di Milano, Italy
Thema, Johannes Department of Sustainable Energy Transition, Europa-Universität Flensburg, Germany - Energy, Transport and Climate Policy Division, Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, Wuppertal, Germany
Thiran, Paolo Institute of Mechanics, Materials and Civil engineering, Université Catholique de Louvain, Belgium
Toledano, Adrien négaWatt Association, Valence, France
Vogel, Bendix Department of Sustainable Energy Transition, Europa-Universität Flensburg, Germany - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) e.V., Potsdam, Germany
Zell-Ziegler, Carina Department of Landscape Planning and Development, Technische Universität Berlin, Germany - Energy & Climate Division, Oeko-Institut, Berlin, Germany
Marignac, Yves négaWatt Association, Valence, France

2024

Published in:

Nature Communications. - 2024, vol. 15, no. 1, p. 9043

English A detailed assessment of a low energy demand, 1.5 ∘C compatible pathway is provided for Europe from a bottom-up, country scale modelling perspective. The level of detail enables a clear representation of the potential of sufficiency measures. Results show that by 2050, 50% final energy demand reduction compared to 2019 is possible in Europe, with at least 40% of it attributable to various sufficiency measures across all sectors. This reduction enables a 77% renewable energy share in 2040 and 100% in 2050, with very limited need for imports from outside of Europe and no carbon sequestration technologies. Sufficiency enables increased fairness between countries through the convergence towards a more equitable share of energy service levels. Here we show, that without sufficiency measures, Europe misses the opportunity to transform energy demand leaving considerable pressure on supply side changes combined with unproven carbon removal technologies.

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