Analyzing the global trade network in the aftermath of large-scale invasion of Ukraine : an empirical account covering 2019-2024
Bartesaghi, PaoloDepartment of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods, Università degli Studi di Milano, Italy
Beretta, Edoardo
ORCID
Istituto di economia politica (IdEP), Facoltà di scienze economiche, Università della Svizzera italiana, Svizzera
Caruso, RaulDepartment of Economic Policy and International Peace Science Center (IPSC), Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milano, Italy - European Centre of Peace Science, Integration and Cooperation (CESPIC), Catholic University ‛Our Lady of Good Counsel’, Tirana, Albania
English
We analyze the structure of the world trade network over 2019–2024, spanning the Covid-19 crisis and the 2022 large-scale invasion of Ukraine. Using a network-based approach grounded in non-local indicators, we uncover in particular both the immediate and persistent effects of the Ukrainian conflict on global markets and reveal distinct patterns within clusters such as the G20, EU, and BRICS. Metric evaluations and community detection algorithms based on communicability and resistance distances show that, from a trade-network perspective, the 2022 large-scale invasion of Ukraine constituted a major structural shock—one that affected country blocs in markedly different ways and contrasted sharply with the more uniform impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.