<oai_dc:dc xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:oai_dc="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc/" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xsi:schemaLocation="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc/ http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc.xsd">
  <dc:contributor>Barone-Adesi, Giovanni</dc:contributor>
  <dc:creator>Volpe, Valeria</dc:creator>
  <dc:date>2009-11-27</dc:date>
  <dc:description xmlns:ns0="xml" ns0:lang="en">An in-depth analysis of Nord Pool electricity price has been outlined. This market is the oldest and one of the largest European electricity exchange, allowing to  observe a consistently long time series. The main contributions of this work are: (a) A wavelet-based algorithm, named Rα-WTMM, to automatically detect spikes  on a time series. The WTMM algorithm, used in signal processing to detect singularities, has been modified in order to selectively identify the spike locations.  Spikes are one of the most distinguishing features of the electricity commodity and they cannot be ignored when dealing with electricity modelling. (b) A spot  price model with a regime-switching configuration, between a diffusion and a non-parametric component defined by a double bootstrap procedure, has been  choosen. The adopted model enables to reproduce the main features of the observed price trajectory, such as price-dependent volatility, mean reversion and  spikes, without adding any jump component; it achieves a high level of freedom in the possible trajectories shapes, although with very few parameters: for  instance both positive and negative spikes are allowed, and multiple and different length spikes are also contemplated. Moreover, thanks to the nice probabilistic  properties of the chosen bootstrap, a sensible Markovianity is preserved. (c) The pricing of American options, starting from Monte Carlo Least Square  procedure, has been developed and applied to the proposed regime-switching model. By introducing an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Brownian Bridge, continuous  sample paths, needed to perform backward induction, have been consistently generated. Further, to reduce the high memory storage required by dynamic  programming, the underlying process has been simulated in a backward time-moving direction, generalizing this backward simulation technique to any random  processes. (d) An extensive empirical analysis of the Futures term structure aimed at understanding the futures risk premium behaviour has been provided. A  Futures pricing formula based on reservoirs optimal allocation, given the predominance of the hydropower generated electricity, has been derived. Each Futures  contract has been defined as a linear combination of an Asian option and an American option, both written on the electricity spot price. The market data support  this hypothesis, suggesting interesting economic interpretations.</dc:description>
  <dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
  <dc:identifier>https://susi.usi.ch/global/documents/318304</dc:identifier>
  <dc:identifier>https://localhost:5000/ark:/12658/srd1318304</dc:identifier>
  <dc:identifier>https://susi.usi.ch/documents/318304/files/2009ECO008.pdf</dc:identifier>
  <dc:language>eng</dc:language>
  <dc:relation>info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/urn/urn:nbn:ch:rero-006-110451</dc:relation>
  <dc:relation>info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/ark/12658/srd1318304</dc:relation>
  <dc:rights>info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess</dc:rights>
  <dc:rights>License undefined</dc:rights>
  <dc:subject xmlns:ns1="xml" ns1:lang="en">Electricity price modelling</dc:subject>
  <dc:subject xmlns:ns2="xml" ns2:lang="en">Wavelets</dc:subject>
  <dc:subject xmlns:ns3="xml" ns3:lang="en">WTMM</dc:subject>
  <dc:subject xmlns:ns4="xml" ns4:lang="en">Spikes detection</dc:subject>
  <dc:subject xmlns:ns5="xml" ns5:lang="en">Regime-switching</dc:subject>
  <dc:subject xmlns:ns6="xml" ns6:lang="en">Price-dependent volatility</dc:subject>
  <dc:subject xmlns:ns7="xml" ns7:lang="en">Mean reversion</dc:subject>
  <dc:subject xmlns:ns8="xml" ns8:lang="en">Bootstrap</dc:subject>
  <dc:subject xmlns:ns9="xml" ns9:lang="en">Markovian process</dc:subject>
  <dc:subject xmlns:ns10="xml" ns10:lang="en">Brownian bridge</dc:subject>
  <dc:subject xmlns:ns11="xml" ns11:lang="en">Monte Carlo least square</dc:subject>
  <dc:subject xmlns:ns12="xml" ns12:lang="en">American option</dc:subject>
  <dc:subject xmlns:ns13="xml" ns13:lang="en">Backward simulation</dc:subject>
  <dc:subject xmlns:ns14="xml" ns14:lang="en">Futures risk premium</dc:subject>
  <dc:subject xmlns:ns15="xml" ns15:lang="en">Futures pricing formula</dc:subject>
  <dc:subject xmlns:ns16="xml" ns16:lang="en">Asian option</dc:subject>
  <dc:subject xmlns:ns17="xml" ns17:lang="en">Reservoir optimal allocation</dc:subject>
  <dc:subject xmlns:ns18="xml" ns18:lang="en">Hydroelectricity pricing</dc:subject>
  <dc:subject>info:eu-repo/classification/udc/33</dc:subject>
  <dc:title xmlns:ns19="xml" ns19:lang="en">The electricity price modelling and derivatives pricing in the Nord Pool market</dc:title>
  <dc:type>http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_db06</dc:type>
</oai_dc:dc>